Half of the sales year is in the books. The prognosticators and crystal ball experts can’t decide if gas is going to be more or less expensive or whether the economy is going to grow enough to carry auto sales up, down or sideways.

Well, what we have is actual sales data — the numbers, calculations and statistics that tell stories if you drill down and really look at these facts. Are the Detroit Three making a real comeback? Is Toyota on the ropes? Have Nissan and Honda taken a nap?

Let’s give the numbers a chance to tell their story.

Big Dogs

Ford’s F-series pickup series continues to dominate the sales charts as America’s favorite new vehicle. Over 264,000 Ford pickups have moved off dealer lots through the first six months of 2011, edging GM’s combined Chevy Silverado (the Chevy is America’s second best selling vehicle line) and GMC Sierra duo. Toyota’s Camry holds down the number three top-10 slot with over 147,000 sedans sold here.

Eight of the top ten selling vehicles are now cars — a significant change from just a few years ago. New competitors joining America’s perennial best-sellers; the Ford Fusion at number eight, the all-new Chevy Cruze at nine and Chevy’s aging Malibu vaulting to the 10th spot, giving Chevrolet three leading nameplates on the top-10 list.

Cars Ahead of Trucks

The Cruze and Malibu have helped Chevrolet jump past Toyota and Ford into the number one selling ‘car’ brand spot through June of 2011. Chevy has sold almost one-half million new cars, but not enough to leapfrog Ford’s large edge in total truck sales as Dearborn’s blue-oval brand retains its overall top-selling brand title. So far, Ford has 16 percent of the total new car market in 2011, with over 1 million new cars and trucks sold. That is a 20 percent gain over 2010.

With six months down, car sales have a 300,000-unit margin over trucks in a year that has seen new car/truck sales gain 13 percent over last year. Over 6.3 million new vehicles have found homes with the average transaction price fast approaching $30,000.

Who’s Hot?

Solidly in front, the boys from Dearborn have to be pleased with Ford’s success this year. The revised Explorer (up 52 percent), Fiesta and Focus, plus the resurgence of the eleven-year old Escape (sales up 19 percent), is just plain remarkable.

Chevy dealers are also exited about the hot Equinox (up 30 percent) the popular Camaro (outselling Mustang) as well as the bonus sales coming from Impala — fleet and retail sales have increased by 14 percent this year.

Over at Chrysler/Fiat, Jeep continues to carry the freight for all of the Pentastar brands. Jeep sales are up 33 percent YTD, while Ram truck sales have, finally, started to move forward — 23 percent ahead of last year.

Other notable gains; GMC has moved ahead of last year by 20 percent, Cadillac is up 16 percent and GM’s other beleaguered brand, Buick, has jumped up 25 percent. Mini Cooper’s new Countryman has helped that brand increase sales by 30 percent, while Mini’s owner — BMW — is up 13 percent YTD. Hyundai continues to roll, up 20 percent, while Korean counterpart Kia is also up a healthy 30 percent this year. Other notables: Porsche’s new four-door Panamera has boosted sales 30 percent for this German sports car maker.

Who’s Hurting

Despite the massive parts disruptions caused by the natural disasters in Japan this spring, Toyota’s total sales levels have only declined by 4 percent over last year. Toyota claims that near normal levels of productivity will return this month, allowing the brand to jump-start sales with some expansive marketing campaigns.

Despite lagging sales of Toyota’s Tundra pickup, there is good news as the new Sienna minivan is outselling the Honda Odyssey as well as the Chrysler Town & Country.

With overall new vehicle sales up 13 percent, Honda’s gain of only 2 percent has to be considered a backward slide. Honda car sales are actually behind 2010 levels, while Acura sales continue to demonstrate little sign of growth.

Subaru — one of the industry’s rising stars over the past two years — has been badly hurt by the supply disruptions in Japan. Anticipated market expansion this year is currently stymied, but could continue this fall.

Alternative Cars

Toyota’s Prius has quietly maintained sales levels with last year, 66,000 units to date, but given the economic malaise and rising gas prices, it seems sales should be much higher. Toyota has added another Prius model, the V wagon, while Lexus also has gained a version — the CT200. Both will siphon some Prius sales.

The big attention-getters in this category have been the Nissan Leaf and the Chevy Volt. Through June, 3,800 copies of the Leaf had been sold nationally, while Chevy dealers had sold 2,700 Volts as both makers are doing limited rollouts. Expect these numbers to rise as more dealers are allowed access to these two electric cars.

Chrysler has neither a hybrid nor an electric car, but it does have the new Fiat 500. This subcompact Italian car is already on sale here, but will this tiny, niche product really make significant inroads? Its fuel economy is less than several new Hyundai sedans that are much larger, so you won’t buy a 500 because of its stellar fuel economy.

Predictions

Ford will end the year as the number one selling brand, edging out Chevrolet and pushing Toyota all the way back to number three — just a year after Toyota dominated the industry. The Fiat 500 will outsell the Leaf, Volt and Smart Car, combined — but still be irrelevant. Gas prices will continue to fluctuate as long as the American dollar continues to decline in value. And, more people will buy the larger, wider Ford Explorer than customers who purchase the fuel-efficient Prius.

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